It’s one other shortened buying and selling week however nonetheless a busy one!

We’ve bought the BOC assertion, FOMC minutes, and top-tier U.S. knowledge, particularly CPI and retail gross sales figures, lined up.

Earlier than all that, ICYMI, I’ve written a fast recap of the market themes that pushed forex pairs round final week. Examine it!

And now for the closely-watched potential market movers on the financial calendar this week:

Main Financial Occasions:

U.S. headline and core CPI figures (Apr. 12, 12:30 pm GMT) – First up, we’ve bought Uncle Sam’s official CPI studies on deck, possible offering extra steerage on what the Fed would possibly do subsequent.

Headline inflation is anticipated to decelerate from a 0.4% month-over-month improve in February to only a 0.2% uptick in March, successfully bringing the yearly fee decrease from 6.0% to five.2%. In the meantime, the core model of the report is projected to dip from 0.5% to 0.4%.

BOC financial coverage assertion (Apr. 12, 2:00 pm GMT) – Canada’s central financial institution is scheduled to announce their coverage determination midweek and is extensively anticipated to maintain charges on maintain at 4.50%.

Now this situation has lengthy been priced in by the markets, as policymakers already sat on their arms within the earlier assembly and signaled an extended pause in tightening in the interim.

With that, their financial outlook for the following few months would possibly generate a stronger response from Loonie pairs, so be careful for the presser at 3:00 pm GMT as nicely.

FOMC assembly minutes (Apr. 12, 6:00 pm GMT) – Of their March coverage assertion, the Fed determined to hike rates of interest by one other 0.25% from 4.75% to five.00% to account for banking sector considerations whereas nonetheless making an attempt to maintain worth pressures in verify.

The transcript of their newest assembly ought to present extra insights on how involved committee members are relating to the current liquidity shakeup, in addition to the slowdown in employment and inflation.

Take note, nevertheless, that the most recent batch of largely downbeat jobs indicators and PMI readings got here after the March assembly, so any hawkish remarks could be taken with a grain of salt.

Australia’s employment report (Apr. 13, 1:30 am GMT) – After printing a surprisingly sturdy headline jobs determine in February, the Land Down Underneath would possibly report a little bit of a downturn in hiring for March.

Analysts expect to see a rise of 21.2K in employment for the month, decrease than the sooner 64.6K improve. The unemployment fee is slated to tick larger from 3.5% to three.6% as nicely.

U.S. retail gross sales (Apr. 14, 12:30 pm GMT) – One other dip in client spending is eyed for March, because the headline retail gross sales determine would possibly present a 0.5% month-to-month decline whereas the core studying might publish a 0.4% dip.

This is able to symbolize a barely sharper discount in spending, following the 0.4% decline in headline retail gross sales and 0.1% dip within the core determine for February. Weaker than anticipated outcomes might additional undermine Fed tightening hopes.

Foreign exchange Setup of the Week: USD/CAD

USD/CAD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

Because it’s gonna be a busy week for each the U.S. greenback and the Loonie, I’m hoping to get a bit extra volatility on USD/CAD.

Will the selloff keep it up?

The pair is at the moment in correction mode from its newest slide, with worth pulling up near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement degree as seen on the hourly timeframe.

Technical indicators are pointing to a continuation of the slide, because the 100 SMA is under the 200 SMA whereas Stochastic is shifting south.

I’m nonetheless gonna maintain a lookout for a bigger correction proper across the BOC determination, although, as a really dovish assertion or a shock rate of interest minimize would possibly result in a pointy rally for this pair.

In that case, USD/CAD might check the upper retracement ranges, probably the 61.8% Fib that occurs to line up with a former assist zone at 1.3660.

After all the key financial catalysts from the U.S. would possible usher in some motion, too, as downbeat CPI and retail gross sales outcomes might seal the deal for a Fed mountain climbing pause fairly quickly.

If that’s the case, we’d simply see USD/CAD slide again to its swing low close to the 1.3400 deal with in a while!