How a lot weight ought to we placed on the truth that the S&P 500 index powered above its 200-day transferring common this week? If historical past is any indication, then that is really a reasonably momentous event. Until it is a repeat of March 2022, during which case we’re clearly poised for a push to new lows any minute now.

To be clear, any sign thought of bullish or bearish is predicated on the typical response again by way of the historical past of the monetary markets. So, as an alternative of a sign at all times being 100% bullish or 100% bearish, I are likely to assume when it comes to tendencies. In brief, we must always ask ourselves, “What tends to occur after this sign has occurred?”

Right now, we’ll dig into a short historical past of the S&P 500 and its 200-day transferring common.

The 200-Day as a Market Barometer

Considered one of my mentors used to say, “Nothing good occurs under the 200-day transferring common.” To rephrase, it pays to be affected person for a transfer above the 200-day transferring common, as a result of, till then, it is at greatest a bear market rally.

Method again in 2021 (really not that way back!), the SPX stayed nicely above its 200-day transferring common. The truth is, it usually examined the 50-day transferring common, and just about each a type of exams ended up being an honest shopping for alternative.

In January 2022, when the S&P 500 broke under its 50-day and 200-day transferring averages, it definitely steered that one thing was totally different. That is the form of “change of character” that I hope to determine in my every day and weekly market evaluation routines. Makes an attempt to interrupt out above the 200-day in August and November 2022 did not see any upside comply with by way of. So, after I see the worth break above this transferring common earlier this month, then the next followthrough with greater swing highs over the past 5 buying and selling days, I’ve to contemplate {that a} bullish inform.

Going into subsequent week, I might like to see a confirmed break above the 4100 stage, which, I consider, would open the best way to a retest of the August 2022 excessive round 4300. However let’s proceed our evaluation of market historical past and think about some various approaches to the 200-day transferring common.

The Transferring Common Crossover Method

Whereas there’s usually loads of noise produced after we obtain a “golden cross” or “demise cross” on the foremost averages, I’ve discovered them to not be the simplest methods to find out uptrends and downtrends. Nevertheless, whereas the timing might not be good on these alerts, I’d admit that the incidence of a golden cross subsequent week (which appears extremely doubtless if we rally additional across the Fed assembly) would verify much more power in equities off the October low.

You will discover on this chart that, when the 50-day transferring common (blue) crosses above the 200-day (purple), it is usually method after the underside. And that is smart for a trend-following indicator! The newest purchase alerts had been in July 2020 (nicely after the March low) and April 2019 (after an enormous rally off the December 2018 low).

So whereas ready for the golden cross might not really feel like one of the best timing sign ever created, the actual fact stays that, in a secular bull market section (which we’re arguably nonetheless in), these alerts usually result in a lot stronger positive aspects.

We might additionally strip out the 50-day transferring common and simply have a look at the slope of the 200-day transferring common. On The Remaining Bar this week, my visitor Willie Delwiche did an incredible job explaining why the slope of the 200-day might be an essential information level.

You’ll be able to simply see the connection between the slope of the 200-day transferring common (in purple on this chart) and the development of highs and lows within the uncooked worth information (in gentle grey). So when the 200-day has been sloping decrease after which turns greater, this might be a greater indication of an upside follow-through than a few of the different strategies we have mentioned.

Placing It All Collectively With Different Indicators

You need to keep in mind, nevertheless, that transferring averages do not simply occur in a vacuum. There are different indicators we will use to substantiate or deny the alerts we’re discovering in a easy evaluation of the transferring common patterns.

Let’s add the PPO and RSI on the weekly S&P 500 chart and see how the present configuration pertains to different market declines. Now that we’re utilizing a weekly chart, I am displaying the 40-week transferring common (much like the 200-day transferring common and proven in purple) in addition to the 150-week transferring common in inexperienced.

For those who have a look at 2022-2023 and evaluate it to 2015-2016 and 2007-2008, you will discover that these components are all the identical for the S&P 500 index:

• A brand new all-time excessive, adopted by a decrease excessive and a failure to carry the 40-week transferring common, which then turns decrease
• A retest of the 40-week transferring common from under, then a break under the 150-week transferring common
• The PPO offers a purchase sign, adopted quickly after by one other promote sign
• The RSI exhibits a bullish momentum divergence

However then the patterns begin to diverge a bit. In 2008, the S&P did not get again above the 40-week transferring common. There was no extra purchase sign from the PPO, and the RSI plunged into the oversold territory because the SPX accelerated decrease for the following six months.

In 2016, nevertheless, the S&P briefly dipped under the 150-week transferring common earlier than powering again above this long-term barometer. The index then moved above its 40-week transferring common, the RSI pushed above 50, and the PPO generated a brand new purchase sign.

Now have a look at the present configuration, and you will discover that it matches way more intently to 2016 than 2008. The conclusion? This can be only the start of a bullish restoration as constructive momentum builds for shares.

Wish to digest this text in video format? You’ll find it over at my YouTube channel.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Able to improve your funding course of? Try my YouTube channel!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is for academic functions solely and shouldn’t be construed as monetary recommendation. The concepts and methods ought to by no means be used with out first assessing your individual private and monetary state of affairs, or with out consulting a monetary skilled. 

The creator doesn’t have a place in talked about securities on the time of publication.   Any opinions expressed herein are solely these of the creator and don’t in any method symbolize the views or opinions of every other individual or entity.