The Philly Fed’s November State Coincident Indicators snuck out whereas I used to be away (1/28/22). There are rising indicators of native misery revealed within the midwest, and many softness elsewhere

As detailed right here, over the previous month, the SCI indicies elevated in 30 states, decreased in 13 states, and remained secure in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 34. That’s an enchancment over October, when the indexes elevated in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and had been secure in 8.

The Philly Fed map is predicated on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment knowledge for the states; the St Louis Fed builds on that, creating an ongoing chart that reveals the connection between the state knowledge and recessions:

Variety of States with Unfavorable Development (State Coincident Indexes)

I’ve one minor quibble about this chart above primarily based on the info (at high) by way of the St Louis Fed: It isn’t that 26 states have “Unfavorable progress,” however that many of those states have “progress charges which can be falling (some are constructive, some damaging).” To not be too picayune however there’s a distinction between the 2.

I consider “Unfavorable Development” as beneath zero or contractionary, whereas “Falling Development” is solely beneath the place it was the month prior (constructive or damaging).

I reached out to its creator to make clear the info.

UPDATE: Jan 4 2022 10:53am

Kevin Kliesen responds:

“That is a type of situations when knowledge revisions complicate the lifetime of a forecaster!

My co-author up to date the chart and the November knowledge now present that the variety of states with damaging progress is nicely beneath the edge—at 15.  I knew in regards to the challenge of revision with the underlying CES knowledge, and in hindsight I ought to have careworn it.  However I didn’t. That’s my mistake. The underside line is that whereas there appears to be an traditionally dependable sign from wanting on the knowledge this fashion, the latest observations—as with the nationwide knowledge—can revise considerably.”

Right here is the up to date chart:

Sources:
State Coincident Indexes November 2022 (PDF)
The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Philadelphia, December 28, 2022

Are State Financial Circumstances a Harbinger of a Nationwide Recession?
By Kevin L. Kliesen , Cassandra Marks
St Louis Fed, December 28, 2022