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NAPERVILLE — Value power since late January implies cash managers could have elevated or at the least maintained total bullishness throughout Chicago grains and oilseeds, although affirmation stays absent amid an information delay.

As of late January, giant speculators held reasonable to giant internet lengthy positions throughout CBOT corn, soybeans and soybean merchandise, and people collectively outweighed their sizable internet quick in CBOT wheat.

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A ransomware assault on ION Markets earlier this month prevented clients from accumulating and reporting every day positions to the U.S. Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee.

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Consequently, CFTC has to date postponed the Feb. 3 and Feb. 10 publications of its weekly Commitments of Merchants (COT) information, stating on Friday that it nonetheless had not acquired adequate info. The report will resume as soon as the remaining information is collected, however the potential timing is unknown.

The final COT report was launched Jan. 27 and lined the week ended Jan. 24, so intel on varied market contributors’ positioning has been unavailable ever since. CBOT futures have principally strengthened since then.

Shut market watchers consider cash managers had been robust internet consumers of CBOT soybean, wheat and soymeal futures from Jan. 25 by way of Feb. 10. Funds had been additionally seen as modest consumers of corn and modest sellers of soyoil throughout the interval.

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MARKET ACTIVITY

Between Jan. 25 and Feb. 10, CBOT soybean meal futures rose 8.6%, essentially the most of any grain or oilseed contract. That features a high of $501 per quick ton on Feb. 10, the most-active’s highest since June 2014, motivated by additional deterioration of drought-stricken soybeans in Argentina.

Most-active soybeans rose 3.6% in that 13-day stretch, reaching an 8-session excessive of $15.43-1/4 per bushel on Friday and settling slightly below. CBOT soybean oil is the one grain or oilseed to have fallen since Jan. 25, ending the interval down 0.7% however having dropped as a lot as 4.2%.

Most-active CBOT wheat futures climbed 7% throughout the 13 classes, on Friday hitting $7.90 per bushel, their highest since Jan. 3. Escalating tensions between main wheat exporters Ukraine and Russia had been in focus on the finish of final week.

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Black Sea issues and worsening crops in Argentina additionally helped CBOT corn drift 0.5% increased within the final 13 days, ending at $6.80-1/2 per bushel Friday. Corn has been essentially the most mild-mannered of CBOT contracts since Jan. 25, buying and selling up or down by lower than 2% since then.

ESTIMATES

As of Jan. 24, cash managers’ internet lengthy place in CBOT corn futures and choices hit an 11-week excessive of 201,797 contracts. They’d bought an enormous chunk of soybeans within the week ended Jan. 24, dropping their internet lengthy to 146,261 futures and choices contracts.

Within the week ended Jan. 24, cash managers bought soymeal futures and choices for the primary time since late November, lowering their internet lengthy to 135,503 contracts from the file 150,939 every week earlier. Additionally they bought soyoil for a fourth straight week, slicing their internet lengthy to 35,961 contracts, the bottom since mid-August.

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Cash managers as of Jan. 24 held their most bearish stance in CBOT wheat since Might 2019 with a internet wanting 73,933 futures and choices contracts, having been internet sellers in 12 of the newest 16 weeks.

Each day estimates collected by Reuters counsel that within the 13 classes by way of Feb. 10, commodity funds had been internet consumers of twenty-two,500 CBOT wheat futures. Cash managers haven’t purchased or bought greater than 22,500 wheat futures and choices contracts in a two-week stretch since March 2022, so the commerce estimates could also be excessive.

Funds are pegged to have purchased 16,000 soymeal futures in that interval, implying the online lengthy as of Friday was difficult the file. Internet shopping for in soybeans and corn is seen at 21,500 and a couple of,500 futures contracts, respectively, and soyoil promoting is predicted at 2,500 contracts.

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The every day fund estimates ought to function a unfastened information, however they’ve been fallacious prior to now. One notable time occurred in early 2019 when the U.S. authorities shut down for 35 days, slicing off information from each the CFTC and the Division of Agriculture.

Unbeknownst to the market, cash managers throughout that interval bought their complete internet lengthy place in CBOT corn, which was round 128,000 contracts when the shutdown started in mid-December. Futures declined solely 2% throughout the stretch and analysts wrongly assumed funds had maintained bullishness. Karen Braun is a market analyst with Reuters. Views expressed above are her personal.

(Enhancing by Diane Craft)