The bungled launch of the 2024-25 FAFSA has triggered a big drop within the variety of functions for federal scholar assist.

This will result in a pointy decline in school enrollment in fall 2024. The drop is extreme sufficient that it could trigger some faculties to shut.

Restricted Information on Variety of Submitted Functions

The U.S. Division of Training has not printed any statistics in regards to the variety of submitted functions, apart from rounded numbers included in 5 press releases as proven on this desk.

As of February 28, 2024, a complete of 4.7 million FAFSAs have been submitted, down 38% from the identical time final yr, when about 7.6 million FAFSAs had been submitted.

Primarily based on present traits, the variety of FAFSAs submitted by the tip of August 2024, might be about 2.8 million decrease than the identical time final yr, representing a lower of 19%.

This U.S. Division of Training has in contrast the 2024-25 FAFSA rollout to the 2016-17 FAFSA, the final yr with a January 1 begin date. Beginning in 2017-18, the FAFSA has had an October 1 begin date.

Whereas the three.1 million 2024-25 FAFSAs submitted by January 30, 2024 exceed the variety of 2016-17 FAFSAs submitted by January 30, 2016, the variety of 2024-25 FAFSAs submitted in February slowed significantly.

By February 28, 2024, a complete of 4.7 million FAFSAs had been submitted, in contrast with 5.5 million by the tip of February 2016. By the tip of August 2024, the variety of FAFSAs submitted might be 3.7 million decrease than the quantity submitted by the tip of August 2016.

The variety of FAFSAs submitted dropped to 55,000 per day in February 2024, down from 103,000 per day in January 2024. The upper determine in January was most likely attributable to pent-up demand. The variety of FAFSAs submitted per day in February is just like the typical every day whole in earlier years, or about 52,000 per day. The quantity submitted per day within the second half of February, nevertheless, has slowed to about 47,000 per day, which is lower than the identical time final yr or in February 2016.

The lower within the total variety of FAFSAs submitted means that the variety of Federal Pell Grant recipients might be about the identical as final yr, regardless of the brand new Federal Pell Grant system making it simpler for college students to qualify for the grant.

It’s attainable that candidates are ready till the FAFSA is totally practical to submit the shape. Low-income college students and first-generation school college students do are inclined to submit the FAFSA later than middle- and high-income college students. 

This graph reveals the full variety of FAFSAs submitted in whole every month in 2024-25 and 2023-24. The blue line reveals a projection of the variety of FAFSAs that might be submitted in March via the tip of August, if present traits proceed. 

Except there’s a spike within the variety of FAFSAs submitted after the FAFSA turns into totally practical, the variety of 2024-25 FAFSAs won’t ever catch as much as the variety of FAFSAs submitted in 2023-24. 

Penalties of the FAFSA Fiasco

The issues with the 2024-25 FAFSA and the “delicate launch” interval have prevented many college students from submitting the FAFSA.

• The delayed begin to the 2024-25 FAFSA signifies that candidates have been capable of begin submitting the FAFSA three months late.
• Some candidates and contributors have been unable to get hold of the FSA IDs wanted to file the FAFSA or have encountered different issues that stop them from submitting the FAFSA.
• Among the workarounds provided by the U.S. Division of Training don’t work.
• Insufficient testing of the brand new FAFSA has triggered a big variety of implementation issues, particularly with the FSA ID.
• The decision heart of the Federal Scholar Support Info Middle (FSAIC) has been overwhelmed, stopping some callers from reaching a consultant even after ready on maintain for hours. Name disconnects are widespread. Some callers attain voice mail messages that inform them to name again later. Candidates and contributors haven’t obtained responses to e mail messages despatched via the safe on-line messaging type. 

Many college students have been unable to see their Scholar Support Index (SAI) or noticed an inaccurate SAI.

• The delayed resolution to regulate the monetary assist system for the 18.3% inflation from April 2020 to April 2023 contributed to the delays in implementing the 2024-25 FAFSA.
• Some college students are unable to see the Affirmation Web page with the Scholar Support Index (SAI), relying on whether or not they or their contributors accomplished their part of the FAFSA first. This implies they received’t have the ability to get their SAI till they obtain the FAFSA Submission Abstract.
• Some college students noticed their SAI earlier than the inflation changes have been made.

Delayed processing of submitted FAFSAs triggered different issues, comparable to:

• Delayed supply of Institutional Scholar Info Information (ISIR) to schools, resulting in delays within the receipt of the FAFSA Submission Abstract by candidates. The U.S. Division of Training says that the ISIRs will begin being despatched to schools within the first half of March, which can imply that the primary ISIRs aren’t despatched to schools till the Ides of March (March 15) and it’ll take a number of weeks for faculties to obtain all of their ISIRs.
• Candidates are unable to make corrections to the FAFSA or so as to add and delete faculties from the FAFSA till they obtain the FAFSA Submission Abstract.
• Because of the delayed receipt of ISIRs, there might be a delay in faculties sending monetary assist provides to admitted college students. Usually, monetary assist award notifications are despatched to college students in early March. Now, the award notifications is not going to be despatched to college students till April in essentially the most optimistic situation.
• Faculties are delaying the Resolution Day deadline for college students to just accept provides of admission to Might 15 or June 1.

Some college students usually tend to be affected by the FAFSA issues than others.

• Low-income college students, first-generation school college students, rural college students and underrepresented minority college students usually tend to be affected by the FAFSA issues.
• College students in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Florida and Alaska are least prone to have submitted the FAFSA.
• Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, California and Tennessee have skilled the best declines within the variety of FAFSAs submitted.