SPX Monitoring Functions: Lengthy SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98.

Monitoring Functions GOLD: Lengthy GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Lengthy Time period SPX Monitor Functions: Impartial.

Do not imagine an prolonged decline is starting right here. March 31 jumped above the earlier excessive of March 6 with a “Signal of Energy” (famous with purple arrows), which suggests a legitimate break to the upside and now the earlier excessive (March 6 excessive close to 405 SPY) ought to act as assist (light-shaded pink space is assist). The SPY is close to the assist now. Our pondering is that, as April is up 94% of the time in pre-election years, the assist close to 405 SPY will maintain and the market will once more attempt to rally. (Meals for thought; In pre-election years like this 12 months, if January was up–and it was up over 6% in 2023–then April is up 88% of the time.)

The underside window is the VIX, which touched a brand new short-term low yesterday. Worthwhile tops within the SPX normally do not type when the VIX touches to a brand new brief time period low. What might be troubling for the market is when the SPX trades at increased highs and the VIX trades at increased lows (circled in purple on backside window) the place worthwhile tops can type. Web page one suggests SPY is close to assist close to the 405 degree. If the market does rally from assist and trades to new short-term excessive whereas VIX fails to commerce to new brief time period low, we are going to see a adverse divergence. If the market rallies to new short-term highs whereas VIX trades to new short-term lows, there will probably be a optimistic divergence.

Tim Ord,

Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. E book launch “The Secret Science of Value and Quantity” by Timothy Ord, purchase at www.Amazon.com.

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