AUD/NZD appears to be like prepared to increase a short-term downtrend!

Will Australia’s labor market information drag the pair to new intraweek lows?

Earlier than shifting on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out GBP/JPY’s upside breakout alternative after the U.Okay. printed its labor market information. Remember to take a look at if it’s nonetheless a sound play!

And now for the headlines that rocked the markets within the final buying and selling periods:

Contemporary Market Headlines & Financial Information:

U.S. headline inflation eased on each month-to-month (0.5% to 0.4%) and annual (6.4% to six.0%) bases in February, however the lack of upside or draw back shock saved the markets’ consideration on SVB contagion.

OPEC raised its China demand forecasts however saved its international development estimates for 2023

Saudi Arabia’s power minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman: OPEC+ alliance will stick with October output reduce deal till the top of 2023.

New Zealand’s present account deficit widened from 21.1B NZD in 2021 (6% of GDP) to 33.8B NZD for the yr ended 2022 (8.9% of GDP), the very best for the reason that collection started in 1988.

API: U.S. crude oil inventories noticed a 1.155 million barrel construct however merchandise like gasoline and distillates fell within the March 10 week

BOJ assembly minutes confirmed members debating making additional tweaks to its YCC program however deciding to attend and see for now

S&P: New Zealand’s AA+ and AAA credit score grades might come beneath strain if the nation’s account deficit stays “extraordinarily excessive” over the subsequent 12 to 18 months

China’s fastened asset funding rose by 5.5% in January and February mixed, increased than the anticipated 4.4% development and 2022’s full-year development price of 5.1%.

China’s retail gross sales improved by 3.5% y/y as anticipated within the January-February interval, marking the primary development in three months and the quickest since August 2022

China’s industrial output accelerated from 1.3% to 2.4% y/y in January-February, disappointing estimates of a 2.6% uptick

China’s city unemployment price ticked increased from 5.5% to five.6% y/y in February, the very best since November

U.Okay. to increase power value cap by three months to the top of June

Value Motion Information

Overlay of NZD Pairs 15-min

Asian session merchants tracked the aid rally vibes from the U.S. session after Uncle Sam’s inflation numbers supported a much less hawkish Fed determination subsequent week.

NZD even broke above the U.S. session highs after China’s information dump confirmed enhancements in funding and consumption for the world’s second-largest economic system.

The celebration didn’t final lengthy, nevertheless. New Zealand’s “extraordinarily excessive” present account deficit launch prompted a warning from credit score rankings company S&P that the nation’s AA+ and AAA credit score rankings might take hits if the nation doesn’t enhance its spending hole.

NZD not solely erased most of its intraday beneficial properties, it additionally began European session buying and selling close to its U.S. session lows.

Canada’s housing begins at 12:15 pm GMT
U.Okay.’s annual finances launch at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. retail gross sales at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. PPI studies at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. NAHB housing market index at 2:00 pm GMT
NZ quarterly GDP at 9:45 pm GMT
Japan’s core equipment orders at 11:50 pm GMT
Japan’s commerce steadiness information at 11:50 pm GMT
Australia’s labor market numbers at 12:30 am GMT (Mar 16)

Use our new Forex Warmth Map to shortly see a visible overview of the foreign exchange market’s value motion! 🔥 🗺️

AUD/NZD 15-min Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

I don’t know in case you observed however AUD/NZD resumed its downtrend at the beginning of the month and has been buying and selling an observable descending channel sample since final week.

What makes AUD/NZD’s chart extra attention-grabbing as we speak is that it simply bounced from the channel’s resistance.

Extra importantly, the rejection occurred proper across the (a) 1.0750 psychological deal with (b) the pair’s 60-pip full ATR, and (c) the 61.8% Fibonacci pullback of yesterday’s upswing.

Coincidence? I believe not!

The upcoming New Zealand quarterly GDP launch and Australia’s labor market information would possibly make or break AUD/NZD’s short-term downtrend.

Markets anticipate New Zealand’s economic system to have contracted by 0.2% in This autumn after a 2.0% development in Q3. In the meantime, Australia might even see a robust rebound in hiring in February.

If the studies print in AUD’s favor as markets predict, then AUD/NZD might retest the channel resistance above 1.0750 and even its intraweek highs close to 1.0780.

But when the subsequent periods’ headlines spotlight the Reserve Financial institution of Australia (RBA)’s comparatively much less dovish biases, then AUD/NZD might keep its weeks-long downtrend and dip again to the 1.0725 or 1.0700 earlier areas of curiosity.