For deal makers, 2024 is a yr to stay up for, if solely as a result of 2023 wasn’t essentially one to rejoice.

Regardless of some notable transactions, the yr offered challenges to the bankers and attorneys who advise company shoppers on massive takeovers and preliminary public choices.

World M.&A. fell to a 10-year low. About 53,529 offers price a mixed $2.9 trillion have been introduced, down 17 p.c yearly by quantity, in keeping with information from L.S.E.G.

The busiest sectors included vitality — led by Exxon Mobil’s $60 billion takeover of Pioneer Pure Assets and Chevron’s $53 billion acquisition of Hess — and well being care, which was topped by Pfizer’s roughly $43 billion buy of the most cancers drug maker Seagen.

The story was worse for I.P.O.s, which tumbled 25 p.c year-on-year to a mixed $109.8 billion in proceeds, a 14-year low. That’s regardless of notable market debuts, together with these of the semiconductor designer Arm, the grocery supply app Instacart and the sandal maker Birkenstock.

That displays ongoing concern in company boardrooms about an array of things, from the worldwide economic system to geopolitical tensions, in keeping with Viswas Raghavan, the co-head of world funding banking and the C.E.O. of Europe, the Center East and Africa at JPMorgan Chase.

Together with his agency topping the funding banking league tables for 2023, he spoke with DealBook concerning the yr in offers, and what is going to form deal-making in 2024.

This interview has been edited and condensed.

How would you describe the sensation in boardrooms lately? I used to be simply pondering of the JPMorgan C.E.O. Jamie Dimon’s latest remark that “this can be essentially the most harmful time the world has seen in many years.”

The massive factor that’s plaguing boardrooms proper now could be geopolitical uncertainty. In the event you take a look at what’s forward, international locations that account for near half of the world’s G.D.P. are going to be selecting a frontrunner someday within the subsequent 12 months. You will have two wars on our doorstep. After which there’s China — China and commerce, China’s home economic system because it pertains to nonperforming loans, company well being and the like.

There’s additionally antitrust and shepherding offers by means of varied competitors authorities. A deal that’s international will take for much longer, from one thing like 12 months traditionally, to most likely 18, 24 months or possibly longer.

the place we’re, the amount of offers is at a decade low. Did you anticipate this low degree of exercise?

No. The funding banking price pool was $135 billion in 2021, and the regular state-run price is round $80 billion a yr. This yr, it is going to be someplace within the $65 billion ZIP code. And that is most likely the bottom it’s been in almost twenty years.

However keep in mind, we got here from a world that thought the top was upon us in 2020 with Covid. You noticed this mountain of quantitative easing. There was extra liquidity within the system, and also you noticed asset costs mirror that extra liquidity. You knew that may be tapering.

Arm, Instacart and the advertising software program firm Klaviyo went public in September. There was a way that the I.P.O. window may reopen. Clearly, that didn’t occur. Had been you shocked by how lifeless the market stays?

Probably not. I don’t suppose anyone thought that the floodgates had opened. That market was at all times extremely selective, and the market will proceed to stay selective.

Is the market closed? No. Are our groups engaged on many transactions? Completely. However is it type of going to a “convey it on, any title flies” place? Completely not.

Somebody informed me that if anybody is operating some form of public sale, there may be naturally going to be some curiosity from Saudi Arabia or the U.A.E.

That may be a honest remark. It’s a pure a part of their technique to diversify and make them extra international.

They’re massive gamers. They’ve lots of firepower. They’re additionally projecting their very own clout and the truth that they’ve arrived, that they need to be mainstream.

What are the large belongings you’re in search of subsequent yr — the large tailwinds and headwinds?

I believe headwinds are geopolitics, geopolitics and geopolitics. Tailwinds are inflation calming, progress coming again and charges trending decrease.