Right here is our 2023 funding outlook. I did this a little bit otherwise this 12 months by offering a situation evaluation with totally different likelihood distributions. I believe this can be a a lot better approach of analyzing potential outcomes and can permit you to higher perceive the vary of outcomes.

My overarching view is that the vary of outcomes nonetheless stays very vast as a result of we’re digesting the COVID increase which is evolving right into a bust. Which means that portfolio focus is prone to be a excessive threat endeavor and that broad diversification stays clever as we navigate this unusual interval. The Self-discipline Index was bearish in 2022 and nonetheless stays bearish. It’s laborious to see that altering except shares fall considerably and/or the financial system stabilizes considerably. Alternatively, markets are beginning to digest the adjustments. Equities, regardless of nonetheless being unusually dangerous, look way more engaging than they did a 12 months in the past. In the meantime, buyers need to bail on bonds, however they give the impression of being extra engaging to me than they’ve in a really very long time. Having the ability to purchase a Treasury Invoice at 4.75% is a present in my view. Even junk bonds at 8% are beginning to look first rate. However it’s nonetheless going to be a 12 months of endurance for my part and one that may check your self-discipline at occasions.

I want you all a really joyful new 12 months. I hope you get pleasure from this outlook and discover it helpful as all of us attempt to navigate the approaching 12 months.

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